Matt, I think you're pretty spot on there. And I do have a degree in econ.

SC48:
"I was driving down s. university the other day and noticed a new condo building near DU,and its entire face on University was a blank wall in the midst of what should be a prime foot traffic area – it was horrible, looked like something the zoning laws should have outlawed a long time ago.

11/18/2008 09:05:00 AM"

I also am a Denver native who loves this site. Well done.

That was some wonderful insight! I was the Anon 11/19 4:10 & 11/20 2:57 poster. But anyways, didn't know about the other tower. Thank you guys for informing me.

There are a few reasons why I think we'll probably see high-end residential projects in Denver continue despite the economic downturn:

1) The dropoff in housing values has hit other overbuilt parts of the country (Miami, Phoenex etc.) but has largely skipped over Colorado, with only minimal impact here.

2) Aside from the credit crisis and the end of the housing bubble, the economic downturn is a consumer-end phoenomenon fueled by decreased middle-class confidence thus effecting retail spending. I don't see any evidencee, yet, that high-end people are doing any worse than they have been, and these projects cater to that high-end group.

3) Inasmuch as the credit crisis is concerned, which does effect serious business investments, it seems like that crisis would be the easiest to fix through a stimulus package. I'm not an economist, but when I hear people worrying that an economic stimulus package won't help the economy because people will save money rather than spend it, I figure that's a good thing when it comes to credit, because if everyone puts their money in bank accounts or pays off their credit cards then those banks are free to lend money to corporations making major investments like this. And construction seems to be a pretty safe loan because you are guaranteed a valued asset at the end, so hopefully it will be one of the first places banks start to loan to again.

4) If housing prices and land values do start to drop, you would think it would impact overbuilt suburbs before it impacts underbuilt urban areas.

5) The industries that are failing (like the auto industry) are not located in Colorado, and if they do fail, it will cause people to move out of those states, and they're going to go somewhere like Denver where the economy is doing better, leading to demand and economic growth here.

6) Federal spending intended to stimulate the economy could be funneled into mass transit and other urban-area sectors, one of its purposes being to stimulate private investments in areas closeby. That can only benefit downtown areas.

7) RTD was struggling with its FasTracks plan because the price of copper and steel was so much higher than projected. An economic downturn means that those material prices should drop and we could see the FasTracks program get back on track, which will stimulate private investment in downtown areas near the stations.

Like I said, I'm not an economist, but I do think that when we hear all the awful news about the economy its safe to assume they're not talking about Colorado per se, and they're not talking about every single kind of business or investment.

I don't see that getting built anytime soon, if ever.

Corey